МОНЕТАРНИЙ СУВЕРЕНІТЕТ: ДІДЖИТАЛІЗАЦІЯ ТА ТРИЛЕМА CBDC

Автор(и)

Ключові слова:

криптовалюти, інтернаціоналізація валюти, монетарний суверенітет, центральні банки, CBDC.

Анотація

Монетарний суверенітет перебуває під тиском з боку процесів цифрової трансформації. Такий тиск відбувається через канали розвитку приватних цифрових платіжних сервісів; транскордонних операцій; валютної субституції та інтернаціоналізації певної закордонної валюти тощо. В більшості сучасних досліджень CBDC розглядається як один з ключових варіантів забезпечення монетарного суверенітету в цифрову епоху. На відміну від такого погляду, стверджується, що ув’язка монетарного суверенітету із запровадженням CBDC є певним перебільшенням. По-перше, на основі емпіричного тесту виявлено, що поточний прогрес щодо запровадження CBDC сильніше корелює з індикаторами фінансового розвитку та інновацій, ніж з індикаторами розвитку криптоеко-системи. По-друге, погляд на CBDC як на спосіб посилення статусу міжнародної валюти вимагатиме залучення значної кількості користувачівнерезидентів у конкуренцію за приваблення, що може віддаляти дизайн CBDC від внутрішніх цілей їх запровадження. По-третє, така конкуренція породжує трилему сумісності монетарного суверенітету, глобальної акцептабельності дизайну CBDC та інтернаціоналізації відповідної центробанківської цифрової валюти. Водночас, це не означає, що центробанки не повинні інвестувати зусилля у готовність до подальших цифрових трансформацій. Швидше монетарний суверенітет не повинен сприйматися в абсолютних категоріях.

Класифікація за JEL: E58, E59, O23, Q33.

Біографія автора

Віктор КОЗЮК, Західноукраїнський національний університет, м. Тернопіль

д. е. н., професор, завідувач кафедри економіки та економічної теорії

Посилання

Козюк, В. (2021). Готовність до запровадження цифрової валюти: чи є важливою незалежність центробанків? Фінанси України, 3, 7–22. https://doi.org/10.33763/finukr2021.03.007

Abad, J., Nuño, G., & Thomas, C. (2023). CBDC and the operational framework of monetary policy (BIS Working Papers No. 1126). BIS. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1126.pdf.

Adalid, R., Álvarez-Blázquez, A., Assenmacher, K., Burlon, L., Dimou, M., LópezQuiles, C., Martín Fuentes, N., Meller, B., Muñoz, M. A., Radulova, P., d’Acri, C. R., Shakir, T., Šílová, G., Soons, O., & Veghazy, A. V. (2022).

Central bank digital currency and bank intermediation. Exploring different approaches for assessing the effects of a digital euro on euro area banks

(ECB Occasional Papers No. 293). European Central Bank.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op293~652cf2b1aa.en.pdf.

Agur, I., Ari, A., & Dell’Ariccia, G. (2019). Designing central bank digital currencies (IMF Working Paper No. 2019/252). IMF. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ WP/Issues/2019/11/18/Designing-Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies-48739.

Agur, I., Ari, A., & Dell’Ariccia, G. (2022). Designing central bank digital currencies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 125, 62–79. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.05.002

Aizenman, J. (2019a). Macroeconomics challenges and resilience of emerging market economies (Working Paper 26361). NBER. https://www.nber.org/ system/files/working_papers/w26361/w26361.pdf.

Aizenman, J. (2019b). A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming’s trilemma. Economic Modelling, 81, 444-454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018. 03.008

Aizenman, J., Chinn, M. D., & Ito, H. (2016). Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions. Journal of International Money and Finance, 68(C), 298–330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.02.008

Andolfatto, D. (2021). Assessing the impact of central bank digital currency on private banks. The Economic Journal, 131(634), 525–540. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/ej/ueaa073

Auer, R., Cornelli, G., & Frost, J. (2020). Rise of central bank digital currency: Drivers, approaches and technologies (BIS Working Paper No. 88). BIS. https://www.bis.org/publ/work880.pdf.

Auer, R., Cornelli, G., & Frost, J. (2023). Rise of the central bank digital currencies. International Journal of Central Banking, 19(4), 185–214. https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q4a5.pdf.

Bjerg, O. (2017). Designing new money: The policy trilemma of central bank digital currency. Copenhagen Business School, CBS. MPP Working Paper. https://research-api.cbs.dk/ws/portalfiles/portal/58550948/Designing_New_ Money_The_policy_trilemma_of_central_bank_digital_currency.pdf.

Bordo, M. D., & Levin, A. T. (2017). Central bank digital currency and the future of the monetary policy (NBER Working Paper No. 23711). https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23711/w23711.pdf.

Borio, C. (2019, January 11). On money, debt, trust and central banking (BIS Working Paper No. 763). https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.htm.

Brooks, S. (2021). Revisiting the monetary sovereignty rationale for CBDCs (Staff Discussion Paper 2021-17). Bank of Canada. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/ 2021/12/staff-discussion-paper-2021-17/.

Brunnermeier, M., James, H., & Landau, J.P. (2019). The digitalization of money (NBER Working Paper No. 26300). NBER. https://www.nber.org/system/ files/working_papers/w26300/w26300.pdf.

Brunnermeier M. K., & Niepelt, D. (2019). On the equivalence of private and public money. Journal of Monetary Economics, 106, 27–41. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.07.004

Buckley, R. P., & Trzecinski, M. (2023). Central bank digital currencies and the global financial system: The dollar dethroned? Capital Markets Law Journal, 18(2), 137–171. https://doi.org/10.1093/cmlj/kmad007

Chahrour, R., & Valchev, R. (2023). The dollar in the era of international retrenchment (NBER Working Paper No. 31405). NBER. https://www.nber.org/ system/files/working_papers/w31405/w31405.pdf.

Chorzempa, M. (2021). China, the United States, and central bank digital currencies: How important is it to be first?. China Economic Journal, 14(1), 102–115. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1870278

Cohen, B. J. (1998). The geography of money. Cornell University Press.

Cohen, B. J. (2006). The macrofoundations of monetary power. In D. M. Andrews (Ed.), International monetary power (pp. 41–75). Cornell University Press. https://escholarship.org/content/qt8xb2p5rx/qt8xb2p5rx_noSplash_4edb36 39520fbfa10d1faba3bb36ab6a.pdf?t=krnd8h

Cohen, B. J. (2012). The benefits and costs of an international currency: Getting the calculus right. Open Economies Review, 23, 13–31. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/s11079-011-9216-2

Cohen, B. J. (2015). Currency power: Understanding monetary rivalry. Princeton University Press.

Cohen, B. J., & Benney, T. M. (2014). What does the international currency system really look like? Review of International Political Economy, 21(5), 1017–1041. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24673031

Cong, L.W., & Mayer, S. (2022). The coming battle of digital currencies (AEP Working Paper No. 2022-04). https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/ uploads/2022/05/2022-ccaf-conference-paper-cong-mayer.pdf.

Doerr, S., Frost, J., Gambacorta, L., & Shreeti, V. (2023). Big techs in finance (BIS Working Paper No. 1129). Bank of International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1129.htm.

Edwards, S. (2021). Central bank digital currencies and the emerging markets: The currency substitution challenge (NBER Working Paper No. 29489). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/ working_papers/w29489/w29489.pdf.

Eichengreen, B. (2011a). Exorbitant privilege: The rise and fall of the dollar and the future of the international monetary system. Oxford University Press.

Eichengreen, B. (2011b). The renminbi as an international currency. Journal of Policy Modeling, 33(5), 723–730. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.07.004

Eichengreen, B. (2019). Two views of the international monetary system. Intereconomics, 54(4), 233–236. https://www.intereconomics.eu/contents/ year/2019/number/4/article/two-views-of-the-international-monetarysystem.html.

Eichengreen, B. (2021, Aug 9). Will central bank digital currencies doom the dollar dominance. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/ commentary/central-bank-digital-currencies-will-not-end-dollar-dominanceby-barry-eichengreen-2021-08.

Eichengreen, B. (2022, November 9). The trilemma of central bank digital currencies. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/flawedassumptions-driving-race-for-cbdcs-by-barry-eichengreen-2022-11.

Eichengreen, B., Macaire, C., Mehl, A., Monnet, E., & Naef, A. (2022). Is capital account convertibility required to acquire reserve currency status (CEPR Discussion Papers DP17498).https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/ default/files/medias/documents/wp892.pdf.

Eichengreen, B., & Viswanath-Natraj, G. (2022). Stablecoins and central bank digital currencies: policy and regulatory challenges. Asian Economic Papers, 21(1), 29–46. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2202.07564

Fanti, G. (2022). An Apparent Trilemma for Cross Border Central Bank Digital Currencies. Harvard National Security Journal, 14(75), 75–86. https://harvardnsj.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Fanti_14-Harv.-Natl-Sec.- J.-75-2022.pdf.

Farhi, E., & Maggiori, M. (2018). A model of the international monetary system. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(1), 295–355. https://scholar.harvard.edu/ farhi/publications/model-international-monetary-system.

Fernández-Villaverde, J., Sanches, D., Schilling, L., & Uhlig, H. (2021). Central bank digital currency: Central banking for all? Review of Economic Dynamics, 41, 225–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.12.004

Ferrari Minesso, M., Mehl, A., and Stracca, L. (2022). Central bank digital currency in an open economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 127, 54– 68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.001

Flandreau, M., & Jobst, C. (2009). The empirics of international currencies: Network externalities, history and persistence. The Economic Journal, 119(537), 643–664. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20485338

Floridi, L. (2020). The fight for digital sovereignty: What it is, and why it matters, especially for the EU. Philosophy & Technology, 33, 369–378. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-020-00423-6

Frankel, J. A. (2023). Dollar rivals (NBER Working Paper No. 31476). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w31476

Frost, J., Gambacorta, L., Huang, Y., Shin, H. S., & Zbinden, P. (2019). BigTech and the changing structure of financial intermediation. Economic Policy, 34(100), 761–799. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiaa003

Garratt, R. J., & von Oordt, M. R. C. (2021). Privacy as a public good: A case for electronic cash. Journal of Political Economy, 129, 2157–2180. https://doi.org/10.1086/714133

Gopinath, G., & Stein, J. C. (2021). Banking, trade, and the making of a dominant currency. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136(2), 783–830. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/qje/qjaa036

Gorton, G. B., & Zhang, J. Y. (2022). Protecting the sovereign’s money monopoly (University of Michigan Law and Economics Research Paper No. 22-031). University of Michigan. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4162884

He, D., Kokenyne, A., Mancini-Griffoli, T., Miccoli, M., Olafsson, T. T., Soderberg, G., & Tourpe, H. (2023). Capital flow management measures in the digital age (2): Design choices for central bank digital currency (FINTECH NOTE 2023/009). https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fintech-notes/Issues/2023/09/ 15/Capital-Flow-Management-Measures-in-the-Digital-Age-2-Design-Choicesfor-Central-Bank-538509.

Hernandez de Cos, P. (2023, November 20). The digital euro project – a new milestone [Speech Transcript]. Bank of International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/review/r231121i.htm

Holmström, B., & Tirole, J. (1998). Private and public supply of liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, 106(1), 1–40. https://doi.org/10.1086/250001

Huang, Y., & Mayer, M. (2022). Digital currencies, monetary sovereignty, and US–China power competition. Policy & Internet, 14(2), 324–347. https://doi.org/10.1002/poi3.302

Iancu, A., Anderson, G., Sakari, A., Boswell, E., Gamba, M., Hakobyan, Sh., Lusinyan, L., Meads, N., & Yiqun, W. (2020). Reserve currencies in an evolving international monetary system (IMF Departmental Papers, No. 2020/002). https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-PolicyPapers/ Issues/2020/11/17/Reserve-Currencies-in-an-Evolving-InternationalMonetary-System-49864.

IMF. (2020). Digital money across borders: Macro-financial implications (Policy Paper No. 2020/050). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2020/10/17/Digital-Money-Across-BordersMacro-Financial-Implications-49823.

IMF. (2021, October). Chapter 2: The crypto ecosystem and financial stability

challenges. In Global Financial Stability Report – COVID-19, crypto, and climate: Navigating challenging transitions. Washington, DC. https://www.imf.org/ en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2021/10/12/global-financial-stability-reportoctober-2021.

James, H., Landau, J.-P., & Brunnermeier, M. (2019, July 3). Digital currency areas. VOXEU-CEPR. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/digital-currency-areas.

Kahn, Ch., McAndrews J., Roberds W. (2005). Money is Privacy. International Economic Review. Vol. 46. № 2. рр. 377–399.

Karau, S. (2021). Monetary policy and Bitcoin (Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 41/2021). SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3988527

Kenen, P. (2011). Currency internationalization: An overview. In Currency internationalisation: Lessons from the global financial crisis and prospects for the future in Asia and the Pacific: Proceedings of a joint conference organised by the BIS and the Bank of Korea in Seoul on 19–20 March 2009 (pp.9-18). BIS Papers No. 61. Bank of International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap61.pdf.

Kocherlakota, N. R. (1998). Money is Memory. Journal of Economic Theory, 81(2), 232–251. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1997.2357

Koziuk, V. (2021). Confidence in digital money: Are central banks more trusted than age is matter? Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(1), 12–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(1).2021.02

Koziuk, V. (2022). What do cross-country Bitcoin holdings tell us? Monetary and institutional discontent vs. financial development. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 19(1), 168–185.

Koziuk, V., & Ivashuk, Y. (2022). Does it matter for CBDC design? Privacyanonymity preferences from the side of hierarchies and egalitarian cultural patterns. Economics – Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 10(1), 35–53. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2022-0008

Kreutzer, S., & Molina Vogelsang, M. (2023). Europe's digital sovereignty: An international political economy conceptual approach. In B. Herlo, & D. Irrgang (Eds.), Proceedings of the Weizenbaum Conference 2022: Practicing Sovereignty – Interventions for Open Digital Futures (pp. 26-38). Berlin: Weizenbaum Institute for the Networked Society – The German Internet Institute. https://doi.org/10.34669/wi.cp/4.3

Krugman, P. (1984). The international role of the dollar: Theory and prospect. In J. Bilson & C. Marston (Eds.), Exchange Rate Theory and practice (pp. 261–278). University of Chicago Press. https://www.nber.org/system/ files/chapters/c6838/c6838.pdf.

Mancini-Griffoli, T., Martinez Peria, M. S., Agur, I., Ari, A., Kiff, J., Popescu, A., & Rochon, C. (2018). Casting light on central bank digital currency (IMF Staff Discussion Notes No. 2018/008). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484384572.006

Martino, E. D. (2023). Monetary sovereignty in the digital era (EBI Working Paper Series 2023 No. 141, Amsterdam Law School Research Paper No. 2023- 18, Amsterdam Center for Law & Economics Research Working No. 2023- 07). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4437723

Miranda-Agrippino, S., & Rey, H. (2020). U.S. monetary policy and the global financial cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 87(6), 2754–2776. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa019

Miranda-Agrippino, S., & Ricco, G. (2021). The transmission of monetary policy shocks. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(3), 74–107. 10.1257/mac.20180124

Murau, S., & van ’t Klooster, J. (2022). Rethinking monetary sovereignty: The global credit money system and the state. Perspectives on Politics, 21(4), 1319–1336. https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759272200127X

Naef, A., Monnet, E., Macaire, C., Mehl, A., & Eichengreen, B. (2022, Oct 31). The renminbi’s unconventional route to reserve currency status. VOXEUCEPR. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/renminbis-unconventional-route-reservecurrency-status.

Panetta, F. (2022, June 15). The digital euro and the evolution of the financial system [Speech Transcript]. European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ press/key/date/2022/html/ecb.sp220615~0b859eb8bc.en.html.

Panetta, F. (2023, June 23). Paradise Lost? How crypto failed to deliver on its promises and what to do about it [Speech Transcript]. European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230623_ 1~80751450e6.en.html.

Prasad, E. (2023). How will digital technologies influence the international monetary system? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 39(2), 389–397. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grad011

Raskin, M., & Yermack, D. (2016). Digital currencies, decentralized ledgers, and the future of central banking (NBER Working Paper No. 22238). https://doi.org/ 10.3386/w22238

Rey, H. (2013, August 21-24). Dilemma not trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence. In Global dimensions of the unconventional monetary policy: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (pp. 285–333). Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. https://www.kansascityfed.org/ Jackson%20Hole/documents/4575/2013Rey.pdf.

Rey, H. (2016). International channels of transmission of monetary policy and the Mundellian trilemma. IMF Economic Review, 64(1), 6–35. https://doi.org/ 10.1057/imfer.2016.4

Schilling, L., Fernández-Villaverde, J., & Uhlig, H. (2020). Central bank digital currency: When price and bank stability collide (NBER Working Paper. No. 28237). NBER. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28237/ w28237.pdf.

Schnabel, I., & Shin, H. S. (2018, February 6). Money and trust: Lessons from the 1620s for money in the digital age (BIS Working Paper No. 698). BIS. https://www.bis.org/publ/work698.htm.

Soderberg, G., Kiff, J., Tourpe, H., Bechara, M., Forte, S., Kao, K., Lannquist, A., Sun, T., & Yoshinaga, A. (2023, September 8). How should central banks explore central bank digital currency? FinTech Notes, 2023(008), 1–43. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400253768.063

Tobin, J. (1969). A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15–29. https://doi.org/10.2307/1991374

Tucker, P. (2017, June). The political economy of central banking in the digital age (SUERF Policy Note, Issue No. 13). The European Money and Finance Forum. https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_af21 d0c97db2e27e13572cbf59eb343d_1105_suerf.pdf.

UK Parliament (2023, January 17). Central bank digital currency: A solution in search of a problem? (3rd Report of Session 2021-22; HL Paper 131). Economic Affairs Committee. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5802/ ldselect/ldeconaf/131/13102.htm.

Waliczek, S. (2023). Central bank digital currency global interoperability principles [White Paper]. World Economic Forum. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/ WEF_Central_Bank_Digital_Currency_Global_Interoperability_Principles_ 2023.pdf.

Zhu, Yu., & Hendry, S. (2019). A framework for analyzing monetary policy in an economy with e-money (Staff Working Paper 2019-1). Bank of Canada. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/01/staff-working-paper-2019-1/.

Zimmermann, C. D. (2013). The concept of monetary sovereignty revisited. European Journal of International Law, 24(3), 797–818. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/ejil/cht041

##submission.downloads##

Опубліковано

01.03.2024

Як цитувати

КОЗЮК, Віктор. «МОНЕТАРНИЙ СУВЕРЕНІТЕТ: ДІДЖИТАЛІЗАЦІЯ ТА ТРИЛЕМА CBDC». Журнал європейської економіки, вип. 23, вип. 1, Березень 2024, с. 4-32, https://jeej.wunu.edu.ua/index.php/ukjee/article/view/1727.

Номер

Розділ

ЕКОНОМІЧНА ТЕОРІЯ

Статті цього автора (авторів), які найбільше читають