DEVELOPMENT IMBALANCES IN THE «MIP SCOREBOARD» DIMENSION: CRISIS RISK ASSESSMENTS IN EUROPE AND UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2026.03.605Keywords:
crisis, forecast, linear regression, macroeconomic imbalance, MIP Scoreboard, probit model, scenario analysis.Abstract
The prospects for economic development in European countries face challenges and macroeconomic imbalances related to global transformations, slow economic growth, energy risks, inflationary pressures, and budgetary and demographic problems, which in Ukraine are significantly exacerbated by the war and the need to restore the economy. The development and implementation in Ukraine of a system of indicators to identify, monitor, and assess threatening imbalances based on the European «Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure» is of key importance for preventing crisis phenomena and deepening cooperation with the EU. The paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of the dynamics of calculated macroeconomic imbalance indicators for Ukraine and EU countries for 2003–2024. They reflect differences in external conditions and internal development risks. Based on econometric modeling, empirical estimates of the impact of accumulated imbalances on changes in Ukraine's real GDP during 2003–2024 were obtained, and the probability of the occurrence of imbalances in the Ukrainian economy in 2026–2027 was assessed.
JEL: O11, O57, D81, C51, C59.
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Received: March 14, 2026.
Reviewed: July 28, 2026.
Accepted: August 20, 2026.
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