MODELLING ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF FOOD SECURITY IN EU COUNTRIES AMIDST THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2026.03.539Keywords:
agriculture, climate shocks, composite index, economic policy, EU countries, European integration, food inflation, food security, geopolitical instability, global risks, scenario forecasting.Abstract
The article examines the theoretical and methodological foundations for assessing and forecasting food security in European Union countries against a backdrop of global economic transformation, increasing geopolitical instability, inflationary pressures, energy risks, and climate challenges. It argues that the EU’s current approach to food security goes beyond the traditional understanding of providing the population with food. It is shaped by a multidimensional system of economic, social, institutional, energy, and logistical factors. The authors identify food prices, food affordability, inflationary pressures, energy costs, climate shocks, and social vulnerability as key determinants of food security. The article suggests an integrated methodological approach to analysing food security in EU countries, combining indicative analysis, cross-country clustering, the construction of a composite food security index, and scenario-based forecasting. A system of indicators is developed based on four key dimensions of food security: availability, affordability, stability, and quality & nutrition proxy. A matrix is also developed to cluster EU countries based on food prices, inflationary pressures, and the social affordability of food. On this basis, groups of countries with different levels of risk of food insecurity are identified. The study demonstrates the merits of using a scenario-based approach to forecast trends in food security, taking into account the inertia of food inflation, the energy-cost channel, global food prices, climate risks, and logistical disruptions. It offers baseline, optimistic, and risky scenarios for the development of food security in EU countries. The article shows that, in the current context, food security should be considered as a systemic indicator of the resilience of the agri-food system, and that effective economic policy must be based on proactive risk monitoring, the integration of macroeconomic and social indicators, and the development of adaptive mechanisms for regulating food markets.
JEL: C53, E31, F15, O13.
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Received: May 12, 2026.
Reviewed: August 26, 2026.
Accepted: September 14, 2026.
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