FORECASTING THE EXPORT OF GRAIN AND OILSEED CROPS THROUGH UKRAINIAN PORTS UNDER WAR CONDITIONS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2026.01.204Keywords:
agriculture, export logistics channels, export, food security, «Grain Corridor», international trade, oilseed and grain crops, seaports, transshipment, Ukrainian Maritime Corridor.Abstract
The article examines the transformation of logistics channels and the forecasting of exports of grain and oilseed crops through Ukraine’s seaports under the conditions of the full-scale military invasion by the Russian Federation. The strategic importance of seaports as a key element of the logistics chain ensuring global food security is substantiated. It is established that the creation of the Ukrainian maritime corridor, despite continuous large-scale attacks on grain ter minals and port infrastructure, has made it possible to transport more than 138 million tons of cargo to various countries around the world.
The results of the study reveal the presence of a four-year cycle in the dynamics of grain transshipment in Ukrainian seaports and confirm a pronounced seasonal inertia of the process. Forecast calculations indicate a possible decline in transshipment volumes in 2025–2026, followed by a recovery in 2027–2028 to a level close to the indicators of 2024. The obtained results also demonstrate significant variability in development scenarios, which is associated with a high level of military, infrastructural, and market risks. The practical significance of the research lies in forming an analytical basis for strategic planning of port infrastructure development and improving the mechanisms of export logistics of Ukrainian agricultural products under conditions of wartime and post-war economic transformation.
JEL: Q17, Q18, L92, F42, F20.
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Received: October 3, 2025.
Reviewed: March 9, 2026.
Accepted: March 17, 2026.
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