METHODOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF M2-TO-GDP AND DEBT-TO-GDP RATIOS ON MACROECONOMIC STABILITY: A POLYNOMIAL ANALYSIS APPROACH
Keywords:
Debt/GDP ratio; emerging economies; fiscal policy; inflation; M2/GDP ratio; macroeconomic stability; monetary policy; polynomial smoothing; Ukraine.Abstract
This study analyzes Ukraine’s M2/GDP and Debt/GDP ratios from 2000 to 2024 using polynomial smoothing techniques to uncover long-term trends in monetary and fiscal dynamics. The analysis demonstrates how fluctuations in money supply and public debt interact to influence inflation, liquidity, and overall macroeconomic stability. Findings indicate that both excessive and insufficient liquidity exacerbate inflationary pressures, while rising public debt, particularly during crises, constrains the effectiveness of monetary policy. By filtering out short term volatility, polynomial analysis provides a clearer understanding of structural economic patterns and the impact of exogenous shocks such as financial crises, geopolitical tensions, and domestic policy shifts. The results offer valuable insights for policymakers, highlighting the importance of maintaining balanced monetary and fiscal conditions to ensure price stability, adequate liquidity, and sustainable economic growth in transitional and emerging economies.
JEL: E51, E52, H63, E62, C22, C32, E41, H68.
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Received: September 24, 2025.
Reviewed: November 7, 2025.
Accepted: December 9, 2025.
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