CIRCULAR ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT IN EU COUNTRIES THROUGH THE LENS OF PLASTIC RECYCLING
Keywords:
circular economy policy, circular economy, EU countries, plastic packaging waste, recycling performance, resource productivity.Abstract
This study examines circular economy (CE) performance across 27 EU countries over 2015–2023 using indicators related to patents, resource productivity, plastic packaging waste generation, trade in recyclable raw materials, employment in CE sectors, and plastic packaging recycling. The empirical analysis combines descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, fuzzy c-means clustering, and multinomial logistic regression. The results identify three clusters of EU countries: lagging systems with weak performance across most dimensions, advanced integrated economies combining innovation and recycling capacity, and efficiency-driven recyclers that achieve comparatively strong recycling outcomes despite weaker innovation and labour-market capacity. The findings suggest that CE performance in the EU is not one-dimensional. Multinomial logistic regression confirms that recycling performance is the primary driver of transition from low- to intermediate-level systems, while advanced systems require broader structural integration. The findings highlight gradual, path-dependent transitions and provide evidence for differentiated policy strategies targeting both capacity building and recycling efficiency. The original contribution of this study lies in empirically distinguishing between capacity-driven and outcome-driven dimensions of CE performance and in demonstrating that intermediate circular success can emerge under structurally different national configurations, which has direct implications for differentiated EU cohesion and CE funding policy.
JEL: Q56, O52, Q53.
References
Agresti, A. (2002). Categorical dataanalysis. Wiley-Interscience. https://doi.org/10.1002/0471249688
Alonso-Fernández, P., & Regueiro-Ferreira, R. M. (2021). An approximation to the environmental impact of economic growth using the material flow analysis: Differences between production and consumption methods, applied to China, United Kingdom and USA (1990–2017). Sustainability, 13(10), Article 5489. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13105489
Anwar, M. A., Suprihatin, Sasongko, N. A., Najib, M., & Pranoto, B. (2024). Challenges and prospects of multilayer plastic waste management in several countries: A systematic literature review. Case Studies in Chemical and Environmental Engineering, 10, Article 100911. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cscee.2024.100911
Avdiushchenko, A. (2021). Circular economy in Poland: Main achievements and future prospects. In A. Bisello, D. Vettorato, D. Ludlow, & C. Baranzelli (Eds.), Smart and sustainable planning for cities and regions: Results ofSSPCR 2019 – Open access contributions (pp. 141–154). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57764-3_10
Avdiushchenko, A., & Zając, P. (2019). Circular economy indicators as a supporting tool for European regional development policies. Sustainability, 11(11), Article 3025. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113025
van Beukering, P., Kuik, O., & Oosterhuis, F. (2014). The economics of recycling. In E. Worrell & M. A. Reuter (Eds.), Handbook of recycling: State-of-the-art for practitioners, analysts, and scientists (pp. 479–489). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/C2011-0-07046-1
Bianchi, M., del Valle, I., & Tapia, C. (2021). Material productivity, socioeconomic drivers and economic structures: A panel study for European regions. Ecological Economics, 183, Article 106948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106948
Bocken, N., Strupeit, L., Whalen, K., & Nußholz, J. (2019). A review and evaluation of circular business model innovation tools. Sustainability, 11(8), Article 2210. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082210
Bruns, H., Borsello, A., Dupoux, M., Gaudillat, P., & Hamarat, Y. (2024). Setting the scene for harmonised waste-sorting labels in the European Union – Insights from packaging waste data, survey findings and conceptual considerations (JRC Science for Policy Report EUR 31960 EN). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/00013
Bublyk, M., Kowalska-Styczeń, A., Lytvyn, V., & Vysotska, V. (2021). The Ukrainian economy transformation into the circular based on fuzzy-logic cluster analysis. Energies, 14(18), Article 5951. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14185951
Bullock, C. H., Thorball, N., Somlai, C., & Gallagher, J. (2022). Packaging waste statistics, producer motivations and consumer behaviour (EPA Research Report No. 426). Environmental Protection Agency. https://www.epa.ie/publications/research/circular-economy/Research_Report_426.pdf
Burinskienė, A., Lingaitienė, O., & Byčenkaitė, G. (2025). Dynamics of trade of recycled raw materials and the connection with the circular economy. Discover Sustainability, 6, Article 680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01502-4
Cader, J., Koneczna, R., & Marciniak, A. (2024). Indicators for a circular economy in a regional context: An approach based on Wielkopolska region, Poland. Environmental Management, 73, 293–310. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-023-01887-w
Crass, D., Garcia Valero, F., Pitton, F., & Rammer, C. (2019). Protecting innovation through patents and trade secrets: Evidence for firms with a single innovation. International Journal of the Economics of Business, 26(1), 117–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/13571516.2019.1553291
Crescenzi, R., Dyèvre, A., & Neffke, F. (2022). Innovation catalysts: How multinationals reshape the global geography of innovation. Economic Geography, 98(3), 199–227. https://doi.org/10.1080/00130095.2022.2026766
De Pascale, A., Arbolino, R., Szopik-Depczyńska, K., Limosani, M., & Ioppolo, G. (2021). A systematic review for measuring circular economy: The 61 indicators. Journal of Cleaner Production, 281, Article 124942. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124942
Dominish, E., Retamal, M., Sharpe, S., Lane, R., Rhamdhani, M. A., Corder, G., Giurco, D., & Florin, N. (2018). "Slowing" and "narrowing" the flow of metals for consumer goods: Evaluating opportunities and barriers. Sustainability,10(4), Article 1096. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041096
Dong, M. W. Y. (2025). Projecting the development of accelerator technologies using growth models and social cost benefit frameworks. Journal of Digital Business and International Marketing, 1(2), 109–118. https://doi.org/10.64026/JDBIM/2025012
Džajić Uršič, E., Pandiloska Jurak, A., & Topić Božič, J. (2025). From policy to practice: EU circular economy legislation and Slovenia's implementation challenges – A systematic review. Sustainability, 17(21), Article 9408. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17219408
Ellen MacArthur Foundation. (2025). What is the meaning of a circular economy and what are the main principles? https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/topics/circular-economy-introduction/overview
European Commission. (2018a). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions on a monitoring framework for the circular economy (COM/2018/29 final). Publications Office of the European Union. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52018DC0029
European Commission. (2018b). Commission staff working document: Measuring progress towards the circular economy in the European Union – Key indicators for a monitoring framework (SWD(2018) 17 final). Publications Office of the European Union. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:52018SC0017
European Commission. (2018c). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: A European strategy for plastics in a circular economy (COM(2018) 28 final). Publications Office of the European Union.https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52018DC0028
European Commission. (2021). Commission staff working document: Impact assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on shipments of waste and amending Regulations (EU) No 1257/2013 and (EU) No 2020/1056 (SWD(2021)331 final). Publications Office of the European Union. https://eurlex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX%3A52021SC0331
European Environment Agency. (2023). Tracking waste prevention progress: A narrative-based waste prevention monitoring framework at the EU level. Publications Office of the European Union. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2800/612143
Eurostat. (2025a). Patents related to recycling and secondary raw materials [Data set]. Retrieved October 15, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.2908/CEI_CIE020
Eurostat. (2025b). Resource productivity [Data set]. Retrieved October 15, 2025, fromhttps://doi.org/10.2908/ENV_AC_RP
Eurostat. (2025c). Generation of plastic packaging waste per capita [Data set]. Retrieved October 15, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.2908/CEI_PC050
Eurostat. (2025d). Trade in recyclable raw materials [Data set]. Retrieved October 15, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.2908/CEI_SRM020
Eurostat. (2025e). Persons employed in circular economy sectors [Data set]. Retrieved October 15, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.2908/CEI_CIE011
Eurostat. (2025f). Recycling rate of packaging waste by type of packaging [Data set]. Retrieved October 15, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.2908/CEI_WM020
Eurostat. (2025g). Recycling rate of municipal waste [Data set]. Retrieved October 15, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.2908/CEI_WM011
Freyer, E., Lishchynskyy, I., & Lyzun, M. (2021). Development of renewable energy: The experience of East Germany for Ukraine. Journal of European Economy, 20(3), 442–460. https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2021.03.440
Fura, B., Stec, M., & Miś, T. (2020). Statistical evaluation of the level of development of circular economy in European Union member countries. Energies, 13(23), Article 6401. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13236401
Geissdoerfer, M., Savaget, P., Bocken, N. M. P., & Hultink, E. J. (2017). The circular economy – A new sustainability paradigm? Journal of Cleaner Production, 143, 757–768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.12.048
James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2013). An introduction to statistical learning: With applications in R. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7138-7
Kamali Saraji, M., & Torabi, M. (2025). Progress toward a circular economy: A comparative analysis of EU member states. Sustainability, 17(18), Article 8448. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17188448
Kirchherr, J., Reike, D., & Hekkert, M. (2017). Conceptualizing the circular economy: An analysis of 114 definitions. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 127, 221–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.09.005
Kirchherr, J., Yang, N.-H. N., Schulze-Spüntrup, F., Heerink, M. J., & Hartley, K. (2023). Conceptualizing the circular economy (revisited): An analysis of 221 definitions. Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 194, Article 107001. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107001
Krausmann, F., Lauk, C., Haas, W., & Wiedenhofer, D. (2018). From resource extraction to outflows of wastes and emissions: The socioeconomic metabolism of the global economy, 1900–2015. Global Environmental Change, 52, 131–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.07.003
Liang, J., Bi, G., & Zhan, C. (2020). Multinomial and ordinal Logistic regression analyses with multi-categorical variables using R. Annals of Translational Medicine, 8(16), Article 982. https://doi.org/10.21037/atm-2020-57
Lingaitiene, O., & Burinskiene, A. (2024). Development of trade in recyclable raw materials: Transition to a circular economy. Economies, 12(2), Article 48. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12020048
Lishchynskyy, I., Krysovatyy, A., Desyatnyuk, O., Bogacki, S., & Lyzun, M. (2025). Quantitative measurement of glocalization to assess endogenous and exogenous parameters of regional sustainability. Sustainability, 17(17), Article 7584. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177584
Lotti, F., & Nobile, C. (2025). The geography of innovation: Patent insights into Europe's green and digital transitions (Occasional Paper No. 945). Banca d'Italia. https://doi.org/10.32057/0.QEF.2025.945
Matthews, C., Moran, F., & Jaiswal, A. K. (2021). A review on European Union's strategy for plastics in a circular economy and its impact on food safety. Journal of Cleaner Production, 283, Article 125263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125263
McCarthy, A., Dellink, R., & Bibas, R. (2018). The macroeconomics of the circular economy transition: A critical review of modelling approaches (OECD Environment Working Papers No. 130). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/af983f9a-en
McMillin, K. W. (2025). Processed meats packaging technologies and recent innovations. In Reference module in food science. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-34158-8.00025-6
Milanović, T., Savić, G., Martić, M., Milanović, M., & Petrović, N. (2022). Development of the waste management composite index using DEA method as circular economy indicator: The case of European Union countries. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 31(1), 771–784. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/139896
Moraga, G., Huysveld, S., Mathieux, F., Blengini, G. A., Alaerts, L., Van Acker, K., de Meester, S., & Dewulf, J. (2019). Circular economy indicators: What do they measure? Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 146, 452–461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.03.045
Muñoz H., M. E., Novak, M., Gil, S., Dufourmont, J., Goodwin Brown, E., Confiado, A., & Nelemans, M. (2022). Tracking a circular economy transition through jobs: Method development and application in two cities. Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, 3, Article 787076. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2021.787076
Nowaczek, A., Dziobek, E., & Kulczycka, J. (2023). Benefits and limitations of indicators for monitoring the transformation towards a circular economy in Poland. Resources, 12(2), Article 24. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources12020024
OECD. (2024, June 26). Monitoring progress towards a resource-efficient and circular economy. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/3b644b83-en
PACE. (2021, April). Circular indicators for governments: Accelerating action in the circular economy. https://pacecircular.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/CircularIndicatorsForGovernments_FINAL.pdf
Pakuła, N., Łapniewska, Z., & Dutra, C. J. C. (2025). Comparative measurements of circular economy performance among European countries: Reviewing approaches and limitations. Journal of Environmental Management, 375(5), Article 124414. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124414
Perera, K. Y., Orhotohwo, O. L., Schutz, A., Jaiswal, A. K., & Jaiswal, S. (2026). Chapter 10 –Smart packaging for sustainability and waste reduction. In S. Jaiswal, K. Y. Perera, & A. K. Jaiswal (Eds.), Smart and intelligent food packaging (pp. 263–306). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-24724-8.00014-4
Picuno, C., Van Eygen, E., Brouwer, M. T., Kuchta, K., & Thoden van Velzen, E. U. (2021). Factors shaping the recycling systems for plastic packaging waste – A comparison between Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Sustainability, 13(12), Article 6772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126772
Reeb, D. M., & Zhao, W. (2020). Patents do not measure innovation success. Critical Finance Review, 9(1–2), 157–199. https://doi.org/10.1561/104.00000087
Reike, D., Vermeulen, W. J. V., & Witjes, S. (2018). The circular economy: New or refurbished as CE 3.0? Exploring controversies in the conceptualization of the circular economy through a focus on history and resource value retention options. Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 135, 246–264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.08.027
Saidani, M., Yannou, B., Leroy, Y., Cluzel, F., & Kendall, A. (2019). A taxonomy of circular economy indicators. Journal of Cleaner Production, 207, 542–559. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.014
Schandl, H., Marcos-Martinez, R., West, J., Miatto, A., Lutter, S., Lieber, M., Giljum, S., Lenzen, M., Li, M., Wang, H., Tanikawa, H., Krausmann, F., Eisenmenger, N., & Fischer-Kowalski, M. (2024). Global material flows and resource productivity: The 2024 update. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 28(6), 2012–2031. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13593
Schröder, P. (2020). Promoting a just transition to an inclusive circular economy. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2020-04-01-inclusive-circular-economy-schroder.pdf
Taalbi, J. (2025). Innovation with and without patents – An information-theoretic approach. Scientometrics, 130, 4879–4897. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-025-05406-y
Torkelis, A., Dvarionienė, J., & Denafas, G. (2024). The factors influencing the recycling of plastic and composite packaging waste. Sustainability, 16(21), Article 9515. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16219515
Yamaguchi, S. (2021). International trade and circular economy – Policy alignment (OECD Trade and Environment Working Papers No. 2021/02). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/ae4a2176-en
Received: March 5, 2026.
Reviewed: May 15, 2026.
Accepted: June 9, 2026.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
