DIVERSIFICATION OF THE EU TOURISM MARKET AS A DRIVER OF TRANSFORMATION IN THE HOTEL INDUSTRY CONSUMPTION MODEL

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2026.01.070

Keywords:

consumption model, hotel industry, regression model, tourism market diversification, traditional and alternative accommodation formats.

Abstract

This study empirically assesses the impact of the European Union tourism market diversification on hotel service consumption. The hypothesis being tested is that diversification leads to a redistribution of market shares between traditional hotels and providers of flexible accommodation. The research methodology is based on quantitative methods applied to 2022 data from Eurostat, UNWTO, and Statista. Descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation, and linear regression were used to examine the influence of international tourist arrivals on hotel demand and revenue, and to identify structural market changes. The hypothesis is supported. However, a paradoxical trend was identified: although international tourist arrivals show a strong positive correlation with total overnight stays, they show a moderate negative correlation with hotel market revenue. This indicates revenue redistribution towards alternative formats, driven by shifting consumer preferences. A forecast up to 2031 suggests that the number of guests will grow faster than per-client revenue. The study provides evidence of the growing disconnect between tourist flows and hotel revenue in the EU, demonstrating that an increase in tourist numbers no longer guarantees proportional revenue growth for hotels due to competition from alternative formats of accommodation.

JEL: Z32, D12, M31, O52, F15, L89.

Author Biographies

Kateryna ZHYLENKO, Oles Honchar Dnipro National University, Dnipro, Ukraine

DSc (Economics), Professor, Department of Tourism Business and Hospitality

Viktoriia REDKO, Independent Researcher, Dnipro, Ukraine

PhD (Economics)

Mohammad JAMMAL, The British University in Dubai, Dubai, UAE

PhD (Educational Management and Leadership Policy), Faculty of Education

Dina SIDASH, Dnipropetrovsk Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dnipro, Ukraine

Vice-Рresident

Vyacheslav SLIVENKO, Oles Honchar Dnipro National University, Dnipro, Ukraine

PhD (History), Associate Professor, Department of Tourism Business and Hospitality Department

References

Alcalá-Ordoñez, A., Brida, J. G., Cárdenas-García, P. J., & Segarra, V. (2024). Tourism and economic development: A panel data analysis for island countries. European Journal of Tourism Research, 36, Article 3615. https://doi.org/10.54055/ejtr.v36i.3308

Bei, G., & Celata, F. (2023, July). Challenges and effects of short-term rentals regulation: A counterfactual assessment of European cities. Annals of Tourism Research, 101, Article 103605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2023.103605

Boo, S., & Busser, J. A. (2018). Tourists’ hotel event experience and satisfaction: An integrative approach. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 35(7), 895–908 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10548408.2018.1445066

Booking.com. (n.d.). Sustainable travel 2024. https://news.booking.com/download/904910bb-db77-4886-9ead-accbf87ad891/sustainabletravelreport2024.pdf

Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina, M. (2016). Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394–430. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.868414

Buhalis, D., & Costa, C. (Eds.). (2006). Tourism management dynamics: Trends, management and tools. Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann. https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780750663786/tourism-management-dynamics

Can, M., & Gozgor, G. (2018). Revisiting the tourism-growth nexus: Evidence from a new index for the market diversification of tourist arrivals. Current Issues in Tourism, 21(10), 1157–1170. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1268103

Chenguang Wu, D., Li, G., & Song, H. (Eds.). (2022). Econometric modelling and forecasting of tourism demand: Methods and applications (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003269366

Deloitte. (2024). NextGen travellers and destinations: Our vision on the tourism industry transformation. https://www.deloitte.com/content/dam/assetsshared/docs/industries/consumer/2024/nextgen-travellers-destinations.pdf

Eurostat. (n.d.-a). Tourism statistics at regional level. Statistics Explained. Retrieved October 16, 2025, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticsexplained/index.php?title=Tourism_statistics_at_regional_level

Eurostat. (n.d.-b). Tourism Statistics – Nights spent at tourist accommodation establishments. Statistics Explained. Retrieved September 15, 2025, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Tourism_statistics_-_nights_spent_at_tourist_accommodation_establishments

European Commission. (n.d.). Overview of EU Tourism Policy. Retrieved October 15, 2025, from https://transport.ec.europa.eu/tourism/overview-eu-tourism-policy_en

European Parliament. (n.d.). Tourism in the EU. Retrieved September 10, 2025, from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/126/tourism

Farmaki, A., & Miguel, C. (2022). Peer-to-peer accommodation in Europe: Trends, challenges and opportunities. In V. Česnuitytė, A. Klimczuk, C. Miguel, & G. Avram (Eds.), The sharing economy in Europe (pp. 115–136). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86897-0_6

Gössling, S., Scott, D., & Hall, C. M. (2021). Pandemics, tourism and global change: A rapid assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 29(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708

Guan, J., Wang, W., Guo, Z., Chan, J. H., & Qi, X. (2021). Customer experience and brand loyalty in the full-service hotel sector: The role of brand affect. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 33(5), 1620–1645. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-10-2020-1177

Gunter, U., Zekan, B., & Milone, F. L. (2025, June). Modelling and forecasting European Airbnb occupancy during the pandemic: The specific merits of panel-data and Markov-switching models. Tourism Economics, 31(4), 695–713. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241283510

Gustavo, N., Pronto, J., Carvalho, L., & Belo, M. (Eds.). (2022). Optimizing digital solutions for hyper-personalization in tourism and hospitality. IGI Global Scientific Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-8306-7

Guttentag, D. (2015). Airbnb: Disruptive innovation and the rise of an informal tourism accommodation sector. Current Issues in Tourism, 18(12), 1192–1217. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.827159

Guttentag, D. (2019). Transformative experiences via Airbnb: Is it the guests or the host communities that will be transformed? Journal of Tourism Futures, 5(2), 179–184. https://doi.org/10.1108/JTF-04-2019-0038

Hall, C. M. (2008). Tourism planning: Policies, processes and relationships (2nd ed.). Pearson Education.

Hall, C. M., Prayag, G., Safonov, A., Coles, T., Gössling, S., & Koupaei, S. N. (2022). Airbnb and the sharing economy. Current Issues in Tourism, 25(19), 3057–3067, https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2022.2122418

Ioannides, D., & Gyimóthy, S. (2020). The COVID-19 crisis as an opportunity for escaping the unsustainable global tourism path. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 624–632. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1763445

Kim, C., Shin, J., Yang, H., Bang, D., & Verma, R. (2025, February). Strategy divergence and performance polarization in the hotel industry. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 66(1), 21–36. https://doi.org/10.1177/19389655241244703

Mihalic, T. (2016, January 16). Sustainable-responsible tourism discourse – Towards «responsustable» tourism. Journal of Cleaner Production, 111(Part B), 461–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.12.062

Novelli, M. (2015). Tourism and development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current issues and local realities (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203069325

OECD. (2024, July 8). OECD tourism trends and policies 2024 [Report]. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/80885d8b-en

Ojino, R., Mich, L., & Mvungi, N. (2022). Hotel room personalization via ontology and rule-based reasoning. International Journal of Web Information Systems, 18(5–6), 369–387. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijwis-02-2022-0045

Oladipo, D. (2024, September 3). Travel industry to contribute record $11 trillion to global GDP in 2024. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/travelindustry-contribute-record-11-trillion-global-gdp-2024-2024-09-03/

Pablo-Romero, M. del P., & Molina, J. A. (2013, October). Tourism and economic growth: A review of empirical literature. Tourism Management Perspectives, 8, 28–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2013.05.006

Pappas, N., & Farmaki, A. (2022). Attributes attitudes and chaordic travel intentions during COVID-19. Current Issues in Tourism, 25(24), 4014–4030. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2022.2056004

Quadri-Felitti, D., Su, N., & Day, J. (2022). Consumer perspectives of boutique and lifestyle hotels: Is there a difference? Tourism and Hospitality Research, 22(3), 349–361. https://doi.org/10.1177/14673584211054605

Rawal, Y. S., Soni, H., & Durmaz, Y. (2022). Chapter 1: A review on change in consumer behaviour in tourism and hospitality industry. In Y. S. Rawal, H. Soni, & R. Dani (Eds.), Research in tourism and hospitality management (pp. 1–10). AIJR Publisher. https://doi.org/10.21467/books.134.1

Redko, V. (2023). Sustainable development of destinations based on a holistic approach: Theoretical and practical aspects [in Ukrainian]. In K. Zhylenko (Ed.), International tourism and hospitality: Theory and practice [in Ukrainian] (pp. 88–131). Lira. http://lib.dnu.dp.ua/rep/ekon/knygy/nazva/Mizhnarod_turyzm_ta_gostynnist_teoriya_ta_praktyka.pdf

Redko, V. Y., Krasnikova, N. O., & Krupskyi, O. P. (2022). Overtourism effect management in destinations. In M. Valeri (Ed.), Tourism risk: Crisis and recovery management (pp. 199–219), Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80117-708-520221014

Saboori, B., Ghaderi, Z., & Soleymani, A. (2023, November). A revised perspective on tourism-economic growth nexus, exploring tourism market diversification. Tourism Economics, 29(7), 1812–1835. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166221134183

Seetanah, B. (2011, January). Assessing the dynamic economic impact of tourism for island economies. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(1), 291–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2010.08.009

Sigala, M. (2018, January). New technologies in tourism: From multi-disciplinary to anti-disciplinary advances and trajectories. Tourism Management Perspectives, 25, 151–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2017.12.003

Song, H., Dwyer, L., Li, G., & Cao, Z. (2012, July). Tourism economics research: A review and assessment. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(3), 1653–1682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2012.05.023

Statista. (n.d.-a). Number of tourist accommodation establishments in the European Union (EU-27) from 2012 to 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/412921/number-of-travelaccommodation-establishments-eu/

Statista. (n.d.-b). Vacation Rentals – Europe. Retrieved November 07, 2023, from https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/travel-tourism/vacation-rentals/europe

UNWTO. (2024, November). International tourism highlights, 2024 edition. UN Tourism. https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284425808

UNWTO. (n.d.). Tourism greenfield investment report 2022. UN Tourism. Retrieved August 10, 2025, from https://www.untourism.int/ investment/tourisminvestment-report-2022

World Economic Forum. (2025, July). Travel and tourism at a turning point: Principles for transformative growth: Insight report. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Travel_and_Tourism_at_a_Turning_Point_2025.pdf

World Tourism Organization. (2025, September), World tourism barometer and statistical annex, September 2025 (Vol. 23, Issue 3). UN Tourism. https://doi.org/10.18111/wtobarometereng

WTTC. (2024). Travel & tourism economic impact 2024. https://assetsglobal.website-files.com/6329bc97af73223b575983ac/6643349dbfbdc3e3c03afcb8_EIR2024-World-130524.pdf

WTTC. (2025, April 9). Global travel & tourism is strong despite economic headwinds [Press release]. Retrieved August 14, 2025, from https://wttc.org/news/global-travel-and-tourism-is-strong-despite-economic-headwinds

Zekan, B., & Gunter, U. (2022, May). Zooming into Airbnb listings of European cities: Further investigation of the sector’s competitiveness. Tourism Economics, 28(3), 772–794. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166211044889

Received: November 21, 2025.

Reviewed: February 27, 2026.

Accepted: March 12, 2026.

Downloads

Published

30.03.2026

How to Cite

ZHYLENKO, Kateryna, et al. “DIVERSIFICATION OF THE EU TOURISM MARKET AS A DRIVER OF TRANSFORMATION IN THE HOTEL INDUSTRY CONSUMPTION MODEL”. Journal of European Economy, vol. 25, no. 1, Mar. 2026, pp. 70-89, doi:10.35774/jee2026.01.070.

Issue

Section

Europe in the World Economic System