STATISTICAL METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE: APPLICATION CONTEXT

Mykhailo LUCHKO, Mariia SHESTERNIAK

Анотація


The article examines the demographic processes and indicators of Ukraine over the years of its independence. The essence of the concepts «forecast», «forecasting» and «demographic forecast» is considered. It is demonstrated that the results of the demographic forecast and the subsequent strategic analysis constitute essential information for substantiating the prediction of the main parameters of population indicators, future demographic situation and socioeconomic processes in a given area. The conditions for application of demographic forecasting methods are defined. The statistical methods that are most often used in practice to forecast the future population are grouped into methods of extrapolation, methods of shifting ages, methods of statistical modelling (methods of mathematical modelling), methods of expert evaluations. It is determined that in practice each group of statistical methods of demographic forecasting has its purpose, characterizes a specific demographic phenomenon and is applied to a specific area. Recommendations on using the optimal methods for forecasting and predictive calculations of future demographic indicators of Ukraine are suggested in order to ensure the analytical and predictive component of management.

JEL: E20, J11.


Ключові слова


Demographic forecast; demographic indicators; extrapolation methods; forecast; methods of demographic forecasting; methods of expert evaluations; methods of shifting ages; methods of statistical simulation; methods of statistics; prognostication.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2021.01.183

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