FROM MONEY TRANSFERS TO MEAL TABLES: UNRAVELLING THE NEXUS OF REMITTANCES, FOOD SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2024.03.419Keywords:
food security, remittances, economic growth, developing countries, asymmetric causality.Abstract
The link between remittances, food security, and economic growth is a complex and important element of the economic development of the society. The study aims to explore the causality relationships between Remittances, Food Security and Economic Growth in the Turkish economy. The period of study from 1974 to 2018 and annual data of Remittances, Calories intake (as a proxy for the food security) and Economic Growth are used in the framework of time series. Techniques such as Zivot-Andrews (ZA) unit root, Toda-Yamamoto (TY), Breitung-Candelon (BCG), and Hatemi-J tests are used to detect the causality assessing the direction of it. The main findings consist of: (i) the presence of cointegration of rank two among series, the lack of linear TY time domain causality; (ii) the presence of BCG spectral causality from Calories intake to Growth only in medium period at 10% significance and, (iii) the presence of asymmetric causality from Remittances to Growth in positive changes, from Growth to Calories intake in negative changes and from Calories intake to Remittances in positive changes respectively at 1,5, and 1% significance. These results provide policymakers with valuable insights into the complexity nature of the relationship among remittances, food security, and economic growth, guiding them in designing effective strategies for poverty alleviation, sustainable development, and inclusive growth.
JEL: F24, C22, Q18.
References
Abduvaliev, M., & Bustillo, R. (2019). Impact of remittances on economic growth and poverty reduction amongst CIS countries. Post-Communist Economies, 32(4), 525–546. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2019.1678094
Akaike, H. (1969). Fitting autoregressive models for prediction. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 21, 243-347. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02532251
Akçay, S., & Karasoy, A. (2017). Remittances and calorie consumption nexus in Algeria. International Migration, 55(4), 103-117. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12348
Arı, A., Özcan, B. (2011). Relationship Between Workers’ Income and Economic Growth: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. [In Turkish]. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 38, 101-117. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ erciyesiibd/issue/5895/77894.
Babatunde, R.O. (2018). Impact of remittances on food security and nutrition of migrant’s household: evidence from Nigeria. 30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, Vancouver, Canada. https://doi.org/10.22004/ ag.econ.276986
Barajas, A., Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., Gapen, M. & Montiel, P. (2009). Do workers ‘remittances promote economic growth? International Monetary Fund (Working Papers), 09(153), 22. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451873009.001
Biçen, Ö.F. (2017). Remittances, Institutional Structure and Growth. [In Turkish]. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(4), 239-264. https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.373080
Breitung, J., & Candelon, B. (2006). Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363–378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.02.004
Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., & Jahjah, S. (2003). Are immigrant remittances flows a source of capital for development? International Monetary Fund (Working Papers), 03(189). https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03189.pdf.
Chaudhary, S. K. (2022). Remittances, Economic Growth, and Investment Nexus: Evidence from Nepal. NRB Economic Review, 34(1), 1-23. https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2022/04/vol-34_art1.pdf.
Chirila, V., & Chirila, C. (2017). The analysis of Romania’s external migration and of the causality between remittances and Romania’s economic growth. Amfiteatru Economic, 19(46), 696-710. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/ 10419/169099/1/aej-v19-i46-p696.pdf.
Chowdhury, F. Y., & Dey, S. (2022). Causal Link Between Export, Import, Remittance, and Economic Growth in Bangladesh. Asian Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(3), 331-345. https://doi.org/10.47509/AJEF.2022.v04i03.05
Das, A. (2021). On remittances and calorie intake in Bangladesh. Applied Economics Letters, 29(17), 1594-1598. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2021.1948959
DeJong, D. N., Nankervis, J. C., Savin, N. E., & Whiteman, C. H. (1992). Integration Versus Trend Stationary in Time Series. Econometrica, 60(2), 423– 433. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951602
Depken, C.A., Radić, M. N., & Paleka, H. (2021). Causality between foreign remittance and economic growth: empirical evidence from Croatia. Sustainability, 13(21), 12201. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132112201
Drewnowski, A., & Specter, S.E. (2004). Poverty and obesity: the role of energy density and energy costs. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 79(1), 6-16. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/79.1.6
Dube, W., & Phiri, A. (2015). Nutrition and economic growth in South Africa: a threshold co-integration approach. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(1), 138-156. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-08-2013-0116
Eggoh, J., Bangake, C., & Semedo, G. (2019). Do remittances spur economic growth? Evidence from developing countries. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 28(4), 391-418. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09638199.2019.1568522
Feeny, S., Iamsiraroj, S., & McGillivray, M. (2014). Remittances and Economic Growth: Larger Impacts in Smaller Countries? The Journal of Development Studies, 50(8), 1055–1066. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2014.895815
Ghosh, S. (2018). India: nutrition intake and economic growth, a causality analysis. Development Studies Research, 5(1), 69–82. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 21665095.2018.1468791
Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x
Huay, C. S., Winterton, J., Bani, Y., & Matemilola, B. T. (2019). Do remittances promote human development? Empirical evidence from developing countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 46(10), 1173-1185. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-12-2018-0673
Izevbigie, J.N., Arodoye, N.L., & Omo-Ikirodah, B. (2021). Remittances, Trade Balance, and Economic Growth in West Africa Sub-Region. Sriwijaya International Journal of Dynamic Economics and Business, 5(3), 229-244. https://doi.org/10.29259/sijdeb.v5i3.229-244
Jayaweera, R., & Verma, R. (2024). Food security: The impact of migrants and remittances in Sri Lanka. Discover Food, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/ s44187-023-00070-8
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551– 1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
Kumar, R.R., Stauvermann, P.J., Patel, A., & Prasad, S. (2017). The Effect of Remittances on Economic Growth in Kyrgyzstan and Macedonia: Accounting for Financial Development. International Migration, 56(1), 95-126. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12372
Mabrouk, F., & Mekni, M.M. (2018). Remittances and Food Security in African Countries. African Development Review, 30(3), 252-263. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/1467-8268.12334
McFarlane, A., Das, A., Brown, L., & Campbell, K. (2022). The remittance-food security dynamics in Jamaica. Applied Economics, 54(53), 6202–6215. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2061901
Mora-Rivera, J., & van Gameren, E. (2021). The impact of remittances on food insecurity: Evidence from Mexico. World Development, 140, 105349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105349
Ogundari, K., & Aromolaran, A. (2017). Nutrition and economic growth in subSaharan Africa: a causality test using panel data. International Journal of Development Issues, 16(2), 174-189. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-12-2016-0076
Ogunniyi, A.I., Mavrotas, G., Olagunju, K.O., Fadare, O., & Adedoyin, R. (2020). Governance quality, remittances, and their implications for food and nutrition security in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 127, 104752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104752
Phillips, P.C.B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Piteli, E.E., Buckley, P.J., & Kafouros, M. (2019). Do Remittances to Emerging Countries Improve Their Economic Development? Understanding the Contingent Role of Culture, Journal of International Management, 25(4), 100675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intman.2019.05.002
Pradhan, G., Upadhyay, M., & Upadhyaya, K. (2008). Remittances and economic growth in developing countries. The European Journal of Development Research, 20(3), 497-506. https://doi.org/10.1080/09578810802246285
Raji, R. (2020). Nutrition Intake, Health Status, Education and Economic Growth: A Causality Investigation. Econometric Research in Finance, 5(2), 79-102. https://www.erfin.org/journal/index.php/erfin/article/view/91.
Regmi, M., & Paudel, K. (2017). Food security in a remittance-based economy, Food Security, 9(4), 831-848. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0705-z
Said, S.E., & Dickey, D.A. (1984). Testing for unit root in autoregressive – moving average models of unknown order. Biometrika, 71(3), 599–607. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/71.3.599
Sadiddin, A., Cattaneo, A., Cirillo, M., & Miller, M., (2019). Food insecurity as a determinant of international migration: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, Food Security, 11, 515-530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00927-w
Salahuddin, M., & Gow, J. (2015). The Relationship between Economic Growth and Remittances in The Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependence. The Journal of Developing Areas, 49(1), 207-221. https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2015.0007
Sevinç, H., Bozkurt, E., Künü, S., & Sevinç, D. E. (2016). Economic GrowthMigration Nexus: An Analysis Based on Developing Countries. [In Turkish]. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 398-403. https://www.avekon.org/papers/1715.pdf.
Siddique, A., Selvanathan, E. A., & Selvanathan, S. (2012). Remittances and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka. The Journal of Development Studies, 48(8), 1045–1062. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2012.663904
Sipahi, B.B. (2021). Effect of Socioeconomic Factors on Obesity in Turkey and its Income Related Inequality. [In Turkish]. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 76(2), 547-573. https://doi.org/10.33630/ausbf.822558
Szabo, S., Ahmed, S., Wiśniowski, A., Pramanik, M., Islam, R., Zaman, F., & Kuwornu, J. K. (2022). Remittances and food security in Bangladesh: an empirical country-level analysis. Public Health Nutrition, 25(10), 2886–2896. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1368980022001252
Taylor, J., & Castelhano, M. (2016). Economic impacts of migrant remittances. M.J. White (Ed.), International Handbook of Migration and Population Distribution, Springer, Dordrecht, 6, 525-541. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94- 017-7282-2_24
Thow, A.M., Fanzo, J., & Negin, J. (2016). A Systematic Review of the Effect of Remittances on Diet and Nutrition. Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 37(1), 42- 64, https://doi.org/10.1177/0379572116631651
Toda, H.Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
World Bank (May 12, 2022). Remittances to Reach $630 billion in 2022 with Record Flows into Ukraine. (Retrieved in September 2022). https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/05/11/remittancesto-reach-630-billion-in-2022-with-record-flows-into-ukraine.
Food and Agriculture organisation of the United Nations FAO. (Retrieved in August 2022). https://www.fao.org/home/en/.
Our World in Data. Daily supply of calories per person. (Retrieved in September 2022). https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-per-capita-caloric-supply.
Vo, D.H. (2023). Does domestic migration adversely affect food security? Evidence from Vietnam. Heliyon, 9(3), e13789. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.heliyon.2023.e13789
Zezza, A., Carletto, C., Davis, B., & Winters, P. (2011). Assesing the impact of migration on food and nutrition security. Food Policy, 36(1), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2010.11.005
Zivot, E., & Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the OilPrice Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1992.10509904
Received: June 24, 2024.
Reviewed: August 26, 2024.
Accepted: September 2, 2024.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).