Over the last 20 years, central banks have exhibited both declining demand for gold and tendency to substantially expand gold holdings. At the same time, the aggregate share of gold in global exchange reserves remains considerably volatile. Growing political and military instability in the world is a strong argument in favour of central banks’ renewed interest in gold holdings. This is confirmed by the actions that some states take. However, on the aggregate level, the positive relationship between geopolitical risks and rising share of gold in exchange reserves is not evident. The same is true for the diversification towards gold from the viewpoint of large exchange reserves hoarding. The uncertainty factor and the benefit of holding / opportunity costs factor play a key role in determining the aggregate share of gold in global exchange reserves. Moreover, gold prices, provided their trend is predictable, better explain the growing share of gold in the exchange reserves than interest rates on the US market. This is due to the growing complexity of the global monetary conditions, which are sensitive to historical context and expectations when it comes to the choice of reserve assets.

JEL: E58, E59, O23, Q33.

Ключові слова

Gold; exchange reserves; central banks; geopolitical risks; diversification of reserves; global monetary conditions.

Повний текст:



Aizenman, J., & Inoue, K. (2012). Central banks and gold puzzles. NBER Working Paper, No. 17894.

Aizenman, J., & Marion, N. (2003). The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 17(3), 370-400.

Bahrami Moghadam, S., & Baghernia, N. (2020). The political economy of gold in geo-economic evolving conditions. Geopolitics Quarterly, 16(60), 209-233.

Barros, T. S. (2020). Central banks gold reserves: hedge or weapon? (No. 152418066) [Doctoral dissertation, Universedada Catolica Portuguese]. Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa. bitstream/10400.14/29850/1/152418066_Teresa%20Barros_DPDFA.pdf

Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45(2), 217–229.

Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886-1898.

Beck, R., & Weber, S. (2010). Should larger reserve holdings be more diversified?. ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1193.

Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48, 16–24.

Carver, N., & Pringle, R. (2020, Nov 10). Gold reserves in Central Banks – 2020 survey results. Central Banking.

Eichengreen, B., Mehl, A., & Chiţu, L. (2019). Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice. Economic Policy, 34(98), 315-363.

Emmrich, O., & McGroarty, F. J. (2013). Should gold be included in institutional investment portfolios. Applied Financial Economics, 23(19), 1553–1565.

Ghosh, A. (2016). Determinants of gold demand in Reserve Bank of India’s foreign exchange. Economics Bulletin, 36(4), 1929–1937.

Gopalakrishnan, B. & Mohapatra, S. (2017). Global risk and demand for gold by central banks. Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), 835-839.

Koziuk, V. (2022, May 6). Reserves of central banks: Is gold a «safe haven» in case of geopolitical upheaval? [in Ukrainian]. Vox Ukraine.

Koziuk, V. (2021a). Does political regime matter for abnormal hoarding of international exchange reserves? Journal of International Studies, 14(2), 208-227.

Koziuk, V. (2021b). Gold prices: Do geopolitical tensions really matter [in Ukrainian]. World of Finance, 2, 8-22.

Koziuk, V. (2021c). Role of gold in foreign exchange reserves of commodity exporting countries. Journal of European Economy, 20(2), 211-232.

Mokni Kh., Youssef M., & Ajmi A. N. (2022). COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty: The first test on the hedging and safe haven properties of cryptocurrencies. Research in International Business and Finance, 60,101573.

O’Connor, F. A., Lucey, B. M., Batten, J. A., & Baur, D. G. (2015). The financial economics of gold – A survey. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 186-205.

Oktay, B., Öztunç, H., & Serin, Z. V. (2016). Determinants of gold reserves: An empirical analysis for G-7 countries, Procedia Economics and Finance, 38, 8–16.

Reboredo, J. C. (2013). Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(8), 2665-2676.

Zulaica, O. (2020). What share for gold? On the interaction of gold and foreign exchange reserve returns. BIS Working Paper, No. 906.

Received: May 20, 2022.

Reviewed: May 24, 2022.

Accepted: May 31, 2022.



  • Поки немає зовнішніх посилань.