Lukasz Arendt, Artur Gajdos


The paper focuses on changes in the occupational and skills structure of the employment in Poland. It elaborates on the drivers of these changes - from technical change and educational upgrading to institutional reforms - putting much attention to the hypothesis oflabour market polarisation. The paper pre-sentsthe future developments in labour demand, based on the employment forecast by occupational groups and skills till 2022. It comments on new challenges and possible tensions that may have place within some segments of the Polish labour market, resulting from the mismatch between skills demand and supply.

 JEL: J21, J24.

Ключові слова

Occupational structure; skills; labour market polarisation; forecasting.

Повний текст:



Acemoglu, D., 2002, «Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market», Journal of Economic Literature, 40(1), pp. 7-72. https://doi.org/10.1257/0022051026976

Arendt, L., 2015, «Zmiana technologiczna faworyzująca wysokie kwalifikacje czy polaryzacja polskiego rynku pracy - zarys problemu», Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, No. 401, pp. 13-25. https://doi.org/10.15611/pn.2015.401.01

Arendt, L., Rzenca, A., 2014, «Matching higher education offer with labour market needs till 2020 - the case of Lodzkie Region», paper presented at 54th ERSA Congress, Sankt Petersburg.

Autor, D. H., Levy, F., Murnane, R. J., 2003, «The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration», Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(4), pp. 1279-1333. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552801

Autor, D.H., Katz, L.F., Kearney, M.S., 2006, «The Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market», American Economic Review, 96(2), pp. 189-194. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282806777212620

Brynjolfsson, E., McAffe, A., 2011, Race Against the Machine. How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy, Digital Frontier Press, Lexington, Massachusetts.

Bukowski M., Zawistowski J. (ed), 2008, Zmiana technologiczna na polskim rynku pracy, Departament Analiz Ekonomicznych i Prognoz Ministerstwo Pracy i Polityki Społecznej, Warszawa.

CEDEFOP, 2011, «Labour-market polarisation and elementary occupation in Europe. Blip or long-term trend?», Research paper No. 9, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.

CEDEFOP, 2015, Press release «Poland: Economic growth is not enough to increase employment», http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/news-and-press/press-and-media/press-releases/poland-economic-growth-not-enough-increaseemployment

Colliers, 2014, Outsourcing and Offshoring in CEE: A Rapidly Changing Landscape, Colliers International.

Gajdos, A., 2016, Struktura zawodowa rynku pracy w Polsce. Systemy informacyjne i prognozy, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego.

Gajdos, A., 2015, «Prognoza liczby pracujących w przekroju grup zawodów w Polsce na lata 2014-2022», Polityka społeczna, 11-12/2015, IPiSS, Warszawa, pp. 32-38.

Gajdos, A., Żmurkow-Poteralska E., 2014, «Prognozy liczby pracujących według grup zawodów w Polsce», Polityka Społeczna, 1, pp. 14-20.

Gajdos, A., 2014, «Spatial Analysis of Human Capital Structures», Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, vol. 17, pp. 43-54. https://doi.org/10.2478/cer-2014-0031

Gajdos, A., Żmurkow-Poteralska, E., 2012, «Skilled Personnel Supply and the Prospects for Regional Innovative Development in Poland», Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 4/2012, pp. 45-58. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10103-012-0025-7

Gajdos, A., 2012, «The forecast of occupational structure of employment in Poland», [in:] Vladimir Kvetan, AlenaZukersteinova, Antonio Ranieri, KonstantinosPouliakas (ed.), Building on skills forecasts - Comparing methods and applications, Publications Office of the European Union, pp. 169-180.

Goos, M., Manning, A., 2007, «Lousy and Lovely Jobs: the Rising Polarization of Work in Britain», Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), pp. 118-133. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.89.1.118

Goos, M., Manning, A., Salomons, A., 2009, «Job Polarization in Europe», American Economic Review, 99(2), pp. 58-63. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.2.58

ILO, 2012, International Standard Classification of Occupations ISCO-08. Vol. 1 Structure, group definitions and correspondence tables, Geneva.

Jung, J., Mercenier, J., 2014, «Routinization-Biased Technical Change and Globalization: Understanding Labour Market Polarization», Economic Inquiry, 52(4), pp. 1446-1465. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12108

Kearney A.T., 2016, «Global Services Location Index. On the Eve of Disruption», https://www.atkearney.com/documents/10192/7094247/On+the+ Eve+of+Disruption.pdf/49fa89fa-7677-4ab8-8854-5003af40fc8e.

Kwacz, Y., Ruiz, M., Scasso, J. I., 2013, Services Offshoring Ranking: A comparative analysis emerging economies, Tower Watson.

Levy, F., Murnane, R. J., 2004, The New Division of Labor. How Computers are Creating the Next Job Market, Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400845927

Social Policy, 2014, Employment Forecasts, Thematic Issue No 2.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2018.01.003


  • Поки немає зовнішніх посилань.